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<p>Ever since I was old enough to know what a casket is, and who casket makers are, I’ve always wondered – when a casket maker says a prayer for his business, what exactly does he say? Does he pray that more people in his town die so that he gets more patronage? Or does he pray “God, when people in this town die, as they inevitably will, let the families of the deceased come to my shop?” Every single time I’d be seated in a car and pass by a casket maker’s shop, I’d ponder away with these questions. After many years of not thinking (or bothering) about this, my innately curious mind would bring me back to these questions, with a more robust thought process, of course. </p>
<p>What exactly does a casket maker go to bed hoping for? What does his morning prayer sound like? As stated above, does he hope for a higher death rate in his town with a prayer like “God, let more people die in this town this week?” Well, this doesn’t guarantee that he will directly benefit from this, more people might die per day, week or month and this still might not translate to increased patronage for him – the families of the deceased might decide to go with his competition (if the town is sufficiently large enough so that he has several competitors), or the nature of the deaths and the economic class of the family of the deceased might be such that there won’t be any casket purchase in the first place – in fact, if the context is a place with serious traditional or superstitious beliefs, there could be 1000 new deaths from a disease outbreak in the town that week, and the laws of the land could dictate that due to the nature of their deaths, they are to be burned (as they sail away to Valhalla) and not buried in caskets.
Or does he direct a more specific, cogent prayer to God along the lines of “When people die, God, let the nature of their deaths favour me, and let their families decide to buy caskets from me”. Or is he a high-end, niche casket maker, who builds ornately adorned luxury caskets and prays thus (with economics in mind) “I ask, oh God, that you cause more rich people to die in this town, and when they do, make them make me their first choice for a casket purchase”. </p>
<p>Whatever the case may be, I can’t help but think that, casket makers and more generally people whose businesses benefit majorly from death, destruction, carnage, war etc. are believers in the broken window fallacy, the notion which assumes death or destruction and the resulting services rendered, goods purchased, repairs or reconstruction carried out create a net economic positive or benefit for society. As pointed out by the French economist Frederic Bastiat in his 1850 work titled That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen, the fallacy lies in the fact that this thinking ignores the ‘down the line’ consequences and lost opportunity costs that are not immediately obvious. For example, going back to the town, one person or group of people might say “Well, people died, that’s sad, but at least the casket maker gets to eat”, or the casket maker himself might reckon “How tragic, but without these deaths I won’t eat” or in a completely different scenario, a house burns down and a neighbor remarks “That was so terrible, but now my friend Dennis’ construction company would have work”. The fundamental flaw with this line of thinking is that it conveniently and quite obviously ignores the indirect effects of death and destruction, and when viewed on a long-term scale or at a macro level, becomes obviously fallacious. </p>
<p>Back to the fictitious town, all those new dead people means less disposable income in the town, which in turn means reduced patronage for local businesses, and add to the fact that the nature of the deaths could lead to myths and superstitions about the town (like an episode of Scooby Doo or Riverdale), which could cause people to move out, and once again negatively affect local businesses. Succinctly put, the broken window fallacy is a fallacy because it suggests a net positive when in reality it brings about a net negative or a zero sum at best. As one online source puts it,
“…the fallacy lies in the extrapolation that destruction is beneficial to the economy, and taking a long-term view or even the perspective of an indirectly involved party lays to bare the flaws in this thinking”. </p>
<p>Similar examples exist such as the idea that there’s a net positive economic result of war, citing that many large companies and SMEs benefit from the war which keeps the economy rolling, while failing to consider issues like the loss of skilled workers, disposable income etc.
Back to that casket maker and the fictitious town, I’m convinced that if he had a lever he could pull and control every factor that would lead to an increased patronage of his caskets, he would be pulling that lever as a believer in the broken window fallacy. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!!!</p>
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