TwoCents | Unmasking the Greatest Politician to Run for President Since 1999 - Part 2

Make no mistake, Nigeria’s greatest politician since 1999 is on the ballot for President in this election. He has huge support, has overcome heavy opposition to get to where he is, and will likely win the elections. We shall be unmasking him in this article. In Part 1, we established that a politician is not great because they can win elections by any means possible, including violence, vote-buying, and rigging. Instead, they are great if their track records can instill so much confidence in electorates, that they are willing to commit resources to see that politician serve them. To see how we arrived at that conclusion, you may read Part 1 here: <a href="https://tinyurl.com/yc85ywzz">https://tinyurl.com/yc85ywzz</a> The 3 leading candidates in this presidential election have all served in public office: Bola Tinubu was Lagos state governor between 1999-2007. Since then, he has stayed within the National limelight, something he enjoys as a former governor of the economic capital of Nigeria. Atiku Abubakar was Vice President from 1999-2007. He has been contesting for president since 1993. Peter Obi assumed office as governor of Anambra state in 2006. He is a surprise frontrunner. Election seasons are when the books of politicians are opened. Promises are weighed against past works. Investigations are conducted into their politics, businesses, families, and associates. As a result, Nigerians are more informed about the candidates today than we were 9 months ago. And in 4 days, we will be called to cast our votes for who we trust based on their records. And events so far indicate that the 3 leading candidates are not all faring the same in the national consciousness. Bola Tinubu’s indictment for laundering drug money in the USA, and allegations of perjuring his educational records have been at the front of his campaign. His proud reputation as shadow governor of Lagos now haunts him as he is being accused of continuing to control and siphon the state government’s finances. There are concerns he will do the same to the country. His loudest supporters are career criminals and fantastically corrupt politicians – like governor Ganduje of Kano state whose video of collecting wads of dollars in kickbacks is in the public space. Tinubu has not categorically denied any of the allegations made against him. In fact, he has shunned media scrutiny and has often sounded annoyed that people dare to challenge his ambition. Beyond the allegations, his campaign has focused on his achievements in Lagos. Except that most of the “achievements” are from his time as shadow governor, and not when he was the executive governor of the state. Atiku Abubakar’s corruption cases have come to the fore again, including leaked emails and calls where he discussed siphoning money through SPVs as the VP. He has not categorically denied those emails and calls since they came out. His biggest claims of performance as VP have been refuted by former ministers who served with him. Instead, his shambolic handling of the FG asset privatisation drive has lingered in public memory. Nigerians don’t want him to “sell the country to his friends”. Mr. Peter Obi is currently the leading candidate according to most polls. He has been accused of investing Anambra state money into organizations linked to him. However, unlike his two other main opponents, he has repeatedly shown up to deny bad intentions, even offering his financial records to anyone willing to investigate, to prove that he never profited from any investment the state made while he was its chief executive. Beyond that, he has proved to be the cleanest politician on the ballot. He has challenged anybody to bring evidence of corruption against him, and he will stop campaigning. None have been brought forward so far. Mr. Peter Obi’s acute diagnoses of Nigeria’s problems, and his achievements as governor on a shoestring budget – all verifiable from news reports and government records during the period – have massively contributed to his growing popularity. So, how has the public responded so far? Most polls by reputable bodies show that Mr. Peter Obi is in a healthy lead – with many polls showing double-digit margins beyond his opponents. ANAP Foundation is one of the polling bodies which have pointed to a Peter Obi lead. Their polls have correctly predicted the winners of the past 3 presidential elections, and even recently predicted the gubernatorial elections in Osun and Ekiti states in 2022. However, we already established in Part 1 that surveys can be misleading. So let’s look at the actions of the market: An average Peter Obi video or news report on YouTube has at least 2X more views than any of his main opponents. His tweets average 10k likes and retweets and sometimes reach as high as 60k-100k. The other “bigger” opponents rarely ever reach the 5k mark. But then again, his popularity on social media may be waved away by some as a fad. So, here’s another interesting phenomenon in this cycle: Before the campaigns, Obi was mocked by career politicians for lacking elite support. He was asked how he will fund his campaigns. Regular Nigerians responded by crowdfunding for him to ensure that he lacks nothing. His campaign’s budget is clearly smaller than his opponents, but every day, common Nigerians are fundraising to support one rural outreach or radio jingle and to pay the medical bills of supporters who were attacked by opponents of APC and PDP. You can observe these on Twitter. His supporters realized that the party lacks the extensive structure to push his candidacy over the line, so Nigerians are committing their time, money, and material resources to visit far-away towns. They are travelling to their villages and coming down from other countries to ensure that they talk to people and get them to see why Obi is better. If you agree that a great politician is one who can inspire people to look forward to his service, who would you regard as the greatest of the 3 leading presidential candidates? Vote that person for President.

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