TwoCents | Unmasking the Greatest Politician to Run for President Since 1999

Is Bola Tinubu Nigeria’s greatest political strategist of this generation? The general understanding is that he is.Ask a random Joe on the street, and they will affirm that there is none greater today. And even if you don’t support the man, how can you disagree? This same man… Helped President Buhari defeat President Jonathan in 2015. Looks the likeliest to win the elections coming up in 5 days (after conquering high-level internal opposition to clinch his party’s ticket). Looks likely to surpass the great Yoruba leaders, Awolowo and Abiola -- whom he claims was his mentor -- if he wins. And if he performs well as president, he would seal his place at the top. The correct answer to the question has to be yes. Who else can match the man today? But for the above reasons alone, this article would not have needed to be written. However, I have not written this to wax about his political sagacity. After all, I am not his supporter. Instead, this is to help us critically examine that assertion. You see, as a marketer, my first job is to understand human psychology. With it, I am able to get into the heads of my prospect and persuade them to buy whatever I’m selling. That's how I know for a fact that we humans lie. A lot.So, we marketers know not to depend on surveys. Instead to assess if the market is willing to spend on our products or services, and find how best to go about selling, we conduct market tests. We go out and try to sell, one way or another. The lies we tell in surveys arise from the desire to impress. Subconsciously, our need to avoid looking dumb prevents us from thinking clearly about the matter, so we just give socially correct responses. Yet our actions often tend to be the opposite of what we agree should be. It is why everyone talks down on the foolishness of scam investments, yet even the most educated and achieved fall for them every cycle, from MMM to NFT’s. It is this understanding that constrained me to investigate the idea that Bola Tinubu is Nigeria’s greatest politician. I know it’s the “correct" answer. I know I might look foolish to even contest it. Yet I couldn’t help but wonder: what can the actions of the market tell us? I mean, we, the voters, are the market of these politicians. They sell their plans and character to us, and we decide whether we want to buy or not. Everyone always puts their money into what they believe in. So to help in this investigation, we must first agree on how to judge. Is the end game of politics winning elections? Or is it about governance? Bear in mind, Tinubu’s has helped his party win the last 2 presidential elections. However, data agrees with the consensus of Nigerians that they have ultimately failed to deliver good governance. Even he has alluded to the same by not campaigning on his party’s achievements in power for 8 years. So do we going to judge politicians by their ability to win elections? Or by their ability to win the hearts of the electorates? Before we decide, here’s a story of how one politician is winning the hearts of electorates: The first time I heard about him was in 2019, after he won his election for governor of Oyo state. Even as an outsider to Oyo state, I was aware that the outgoing governor was hugely unpopular among the people for many failures, including not paying salaries, pensions and gratuities, and doing nothing to end the internal strikes of the state co-owned university. I was curious to see how Seyi Makinde would govern. And though I didn’t expect much, the past 4 years have been a revelation of what is possible when leaders want to serve. Firstly, he has been consistent with communicating proactively to the Oyo people and being accountable. Within 18 months of assuming office, he resolved the issues that regularly caused the strikes in the state-owned university. He has since cleared the backlog of pensions, gratuities, and salaries of civil servants. Nigerian political leaders have learnt the bad behaviour of ignoring the polity until the next election cycle when they have to condescend to perform token acts of humility and welfare, mixed with a combination of vote-buying, rigging and violence to win again. But this man has been actively fulfilling his campaign promises in infrastructure, health, transportation, and education simultaneously. A friend who worked in Oyo state civil service testified that while civil servants continue to curse the memory of Ajimobi (who is now late), they regard Seyi Makinde as “their god”. His words. The understanding within the state today is that the upcoming elections are a mere formality, as the people unanimously want him for a second-term. He has proved that he is for them, so now they want him to continue to serve them. The purpose of politics is to gain government power and then govern. Hence, the assessment of a politician’s smarts cannot be winning elections alone. A great politician should be one who is able to win elections and also deliver good governance, such that the polity continues to trust in their leadership. If we praise politicians for winning elections alone, we will continue to have elections where winning is by rigging, bribery, and suppression of opponents’ supporters. But that is not a necessary method for winning an election. It is also possible for the electorates to go all out for a politician. And we have to assess all politicians by that standard. The people of Oyo look like they are willing to buy what Governor Makinde is selling, based on his performance in the last 4 years. Do Nigerians look like we are willing to buy what Bola Tinubu is selling? As a politician with a track record, is the target market lapping up Bola Tinubu's promises? Do you believe the man when he speaks? Elections are in 5 days, but campaigns have been ongoing for the past year. In the next part of this article, we shall analyse the signs we have seen during this campaign window.

More insights from Chinomso Uzoeto